MLB player prop projections, graded and tracked live.
Nineteen player prop markets, one projection engine. We model raw baseball events first, then convert them into every platform’s prop and fantasy score output, with the projection gap graded on every line.
Markets we project
Player props only. No moneylines, spreads, or game totals.
Pitcher Strikeouts
K projections vs lineup whiff risk and umpire environment.
Hits + Runs + RBIs
The combo market, decomposed into its three raw components.
Fantasy Score
Scoring specific to each platform across PrizePicks, Underdog, and Sleeper.
Batter Hits
Contact rate and matchup driven hit probability.
Total Bases
1B + 2·2B + 3·3B + 4·HR, adjusted for park and pitcher.
Home Run Probability
Probability, not projection, because HR props are all tails.
Rates are the standard-line record over the last 30 days: every decided standard line, recommended or not, wins and losses. The recommended cohort is reported as its own block in the Model Room and is not this number. Goblin and demon lines are over-only products. Qualifying goblins can be recommendations and are graded in their own record, demons are never recommended, and neither is inside these numbers. Each rate carries its 95% interval and sample. Intervals are Wilson at the raw sample size, and because rows share slates and games they are a floor on the uncertainty, not a clustered interval.
Top signals
Selected recommendations from the 2026-09-20 slate, a selection view, not an overall performance sample. Percentages are labeled by evidence basis. The Model Room holds the full graded record.