MLB · Pitcher Strikeouts
MLB Pitcher Strikeout Projections
We simulate a starter's outing pitch by pitch — expected innings, batters faced, and whiff rate against the projected lineup — then compare our strikeout projection to every platform's line. The gap is the edge, graded and tracked live.
Today’s projections
A sample of the live board. Full grades, filters, and platform comparison inside the app.
| Player | Matchup | Line | Projection | Gap | Edge | Prob | Platform | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | LAD @ PHI | Over 5.5 | 6.6 | +1.1 | +16.4% | 66.4% | PrizePicks | B+ |
| Justin Wrobleski | LAD @ PHI | Over 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | +14.4% | 64.4% | PrizePicks | C+ |
| Zack Wheeler | LAD @ PHI | Over 6.5 | 6.6 | +0.1 | +8.3% | 58.3% | PrizePicks | D |
| Zack Wheeler | LAD @ PHI | Over 8.5 | 6.6 | -1.9 | −24.4% | 74.4% | PrizePicks | D |
| Justin Wrobleski | LAD @ PHI | Over 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.6 | −20.8% | 70.8% | PrizePicks | D |
How these projections are built
01
Project the outing
Expected innings and batters faced set the ceiling; opponent contact and chase rates set the whiff rate.
02
Adjust the environment
Umpire strike-zone tendencies, park, and lineup handedness shift the strikeout distribution.
03
Grade the gap
Projected K's minus the posted line becomes a signed edge, graded A+ to D against calibration history.
Frequently asked
- How accurate are the strikeout projections?
- Pitcher strikeouts are one of our best-calibrated markets. Every projection is logged before first pitch and graded in the Model Room — no cherry-picking.
- Do you account for the umpire?
- Yes. Home-plate umpire called-strike tendencies meaningfully shift strikeout distributions and are part of the environment adjustment.
- Which platforms are compared?
- PrizePicks, Underdog, Betr, and Sleeper where the market is offered. Lines differ, so the same projection can grade differently by platform.
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