MLB · Pitcher Strikeouts
MLB Pitcher Strikeout Projections
We simulate a starter's outing pitch by pitch, the expected innings, batters faced, and whiff rate against the projected lineup, then compare our strikeout projection to every platform's line. The gap is the edge, graded and tracked live.
Today’s projections
A sample of the live board. Full grades, filters, and platform comparison inside the app.
| Player | Matchup | Line | Projection | Gap | Edge | Prob | Platform | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown | ATL @ HOU | Under 6.5 | 5.5 | −1.1 | +20.4%Model vs price | 80.4% | Underdog | A |
| Ryan Johnson | MIN @ LAA | Under 4.5 | 3.7 | −0.8 | +16.5%Model vs price | 78.2% | Sleeper | A |
| Will Warren | NYY @ AZ | Under 4.5 | 3.9 | −0.6 | +21.5%Model vs line | 71.5% | PrizePicks | C+ |
| Spencer Miles | TOR @ TEX | Over 1.5 | 3.3 | +1.8 | +5.3%Model vs price | 69.4% | Underdog | B |
| Jake Irvin | WSH @ STL | Over 2.5 | 4.6 | +2.1 | +6.0%Model vs goblin payout | 69.7% | PrizePicks | C+ |
| Spencer Miles | TOR @ TEX | Over 1.5 | 3.3 | +1.8 | +5.7%Model vs goblin payout | 69.4% | PrizePicks | C+ |
| Jonah Tong | PHI @ NYM | Under 4.5 | 4.2 | −0.3 | −1.0%Model vs price | 60.4% | Sleeper | D |
| Jonah Tong | PHI @ NYM | Over 6.5 | 4.2 | −2.3 | −48.0%Model vs line | 2.0% | PrizePicks | D |
| Jonah Tong | PHI @ NYM | Over 3.5 | 4.2 | +0.7 | −12.3%Model vs goblin payout | 51.4% | PrizePicks | D |
| Cristopher Sánchez | PHI @ NYM | Under 6.5 | 6.8 | +0.3 | −11.6%Model vs price | 50.6% | Sleeper | D |
| Cristopher Sánchez | PHI @ NYM | Over 8.5 | 6.8 | −1.7 | −41.7%Model vs line | 8.3% | PrizePicks | D |
| Cristopher Sánchez | PHI @ NYM | Over 4.5 | 6.8 | +2.3 | +2.7%Model vs goblin payout | 66.4% | PrizePicks | C |
How these projections are built
01
Project the outing
Expected innings and batters faced set the ceiling, and opponent contact and chase rates set the whiff rate.
02
Adjust the environment
Umpire strike zone tendencies, park, and lineup handedness shift the strikeout distribution.
03
Grade the gap
Projected K's minus the posted line becomes a signed edge, graded A+ to D against calibration history.
Frequently asked
- How accurate are the strikeout projections?
- Pitcher strikeouts are one of our best calibrated markets. Every projection is logged before first pitch and graded in the Model Room, never cherry picked.
- Do you account for the umpire?
- Yes. Called strike tendencies of the home plate umpire meaningfully shift strikeout distributions and are part of the environment adjustment.
- Which platforms are compared?
- PrizePicks, Underdog, and Sleeper where the market is offered. Lines differ, so the same projection can grade differently by platform.
Explore related markets