MLB · Hits + Runs + RBIs
MLB HRR Projections
HRR combines three correlated outcomes into one number. We project hits, runs, and RBIs separately from a plate-appearance-level model, then sum them — so you can see exactly which component is driving the edge.
Today’s projections
A sample of the live board. Full grades, filters, and platform comparison inside the app.
| Player | Matchup | Line | Projection | Gap | Edge | Prob | Platform | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edwin Arroyo | CIN @ SEA | Under 4.5 | 2.1 | -2.4 | +39.2% | 89.2% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Brayan Rocchio | MIN @ CLE | Under 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | +39.3% | 89.3% | Betr | A+ |
| Gabriel Moreno | ATH @ AZ | Under 4.5 | 2.4 | -2.1 | +38.6% | 88.6% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Geraldo Perdomo | ATH @ AZ | Under 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | +39.4% | 89.4% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Alec Burleson | STL @ LAA | Under 4.5 | 2.3 | -2.2 | +38.7% | 88.7% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Elias Díaz | CWS @ TEX | Under 4.5 | 2.4 | -2.1 | +38.5% | 88.5% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Chase Meidroth | CWS @ TEX | Under 3.5 | 1.9 | -1.6 | +38.4% | 88.4% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Ezequiel Duran | CWS @ TEX | Under 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | +37.5% | 87.5% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| CJ Abrams | WSH @ COL | Over 1.5 | 3.6 | +2.1 | +13.4% | 63.4% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Chandler Simpson | TB @ TOR | Over 0.5 | 2.1 | +1.6 | +13.9% | 63.9% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Denzer Guzman | STL @ LAA | Over 0.5 | 2.3 | +1.8 | +13.9% | 63.9% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Braxton Fulford | WSH @ COL | Over 0.5 | 2.5 | +2.0 | +13.9% | 63.9% | PrizePicks | A+ |
How these projections are built
01
Project each component
Hits, runs, and RBIs are projected independently from lineup context, matchup, and batted-ball profile.
02
Sum to HRR
HRR = Hits + Runs + RBIs. Because the parts are correlated, the combined distribution is modeled, not just added.
03
Grade the gap
Projected HRR minus the line becomes the edge, with over/under probability and a signal grade.
Frequently asked
- What is HRR?
- HRR stands for Hits + Runs + RBIs — a combo prop offered across PrizePicks, Underdog, Betr, and Sleeper.
- Why decompose it?
- Seeing projected hits, runs, and RBIs separately tells you whether an edge is contact-driven, lineup-driven, or power-driven — which matters for how it holds up.
- Is lineup slot factored in?
- Yes. Batting order drives plate appearances and RBI opportunity, both of which shift the HRR projection.
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