MLB · Hits + Runs + RBIs
MLB HRR Projections
HRR combines three correlated outcomes into one number. We project hits, runs, and RBIs separately from a model built at the plate appearance level, then sum them, so you can see exactly which component is driving the edge.
Today’s projections
A sample of the live board. Full grades, filters, and platform comparison inside the app.
| Player | Matchup | Line | Projection | Gap | Edge | Prob | Platform | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mauricio Dubón | ATL @ HOU | Over 0.5 | 1.9 | +1.4 | +3.8%Edge vs market | 81.0% | PrizePicks | B+ |
| Elly De La Cruz | CHC @ CIN | Over 0.5 | 2.5 | +2.0 | +2.7%Edge vs market | 81.0% | PrizePicks | B+ |
| Michael Harris II | ATL @ HOU | Over 0.5 | 2.2 | +1.7 | +1.8%Edge vs market | 81.0% | PrizePicks | B+ |
| Jeremy Peña | ATL @ HOU | Under 1.5 | 1.7 | +0.2 | +7.4%Edge vs market | 53.0% | Underdog | C |
| Jose Altuve | ATL @ HOU | Under 1.5 | 1.7 | +0.2 | +6.1%Edge vs market | 54.7% | Underdog | D |
| Chandler Simpson | BOS @ TB | Over 1.5 | 2.5 | +1.0 | +11.1%Model vs line | 61.1% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Jacob Young | WSH @ STL | Over 0.5 | 2.1 | +1.6 | +13.8%Model vs price | 81.0% | Sleeper | A+ |
| Samad Taylor | MIA @ SD | Over 0.5 | 1.8 | +1.3 | +12.9%Model vs price | 81.0% | Sleeper | A+ |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SEA @ COL | Over 0.5 | 2.2 | +1.7 | +19.6%Model vs price | 81.0% | Underdog | A+ |
| Nasim Nuñez | WSH @ STL | Over 0.5 | 1.8 | +1.3 | +13.3%Model vs price | 77.8% | Sleeper | A+ |
| Colt Keith | DET @ CWS | Over 1.5 | 2.2 | +0.7 | +9.1%Model vs price | 51.3% | Underdog | A+ |
| TJ Rumfield | SEA @ COL | Over 1.5 | 2.7 | +1.2 | +6.1%Model vs price | 63.9% | Underdog | B+ |
How these projections are built
01
Project each component
Hits, runs, and RBIs are projected independently from lineup context, matchup, and batted ball profile.
02
Sum to HRR
HRR = Hits + Runs + RBIs. Because the parts are correlated, the combined distribution is modeled, not just added.
03
Grade the gap
Projected HRR minus the line becomes the edge, with over/under probability and a signal grade.
Frequently asked
- What is HRR?
- HRR stands for Hits + Runs + RBIs, a combo prop offered across PrizePicks, Underdog, and Sleeper.
- Why decompose it?
- Seeing projected hits, runs, and RBIs separately tells you whether an edge comes from contact, from lineup context, or from power, which matters for how it holds up.
- Is lineup slot factored in?
- Yes. Batting order drives plate appearances and RBI opportunity, both of which shift the HRR projection.
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