MLB · Hits + Runs + RBIs

MLB HRR Projections

HRR combines three correlated outcomes into one number. We project hits, runs, and RBIs separately from a plate-appearance-level model, then sum them — so you can see exactly which component is driving the edge.

Today’s projections

A sample of the live board. Full grades, filters, and platform comparison inside the app.

PlayerMatchupLineProjectionGapEdgeProbPlatformGrade
Edwin ArroyoCIN @ SEAUnder 4.52.1-2.4+39.2%89.2%PrizePicksA+
Brayan RocchioMIN @ CLEUnder 4.52.0-2.5+39.3%89.3%BetrA+
Gabriel MorenoATH @ AZUnder 4.52.4-2.1+38.6%88.6%PrizePicksA+
Geraldo PerdomoATH @ AZUnder 4.52.0-2.5+39.4%89.4%PrizePicksA+
Alec BurlesonSTL @ LAAUnder 4.52.3-2.2+38.7%88.7%PrizePicksA+
Elias DíazCWS @ TEXUnder 4.52.4-2.1+38.5%88.5%PrizePicksA+
Chase MeidrothCWS @ TEXUnder 3.51.9-1.6+38.4%88.4%PrizePicksA+
Ezequiel DuranCWS @ TEXUnder 3.52.0-1.5+37.5%87.5%PrizePicksA+
CJ AbramsWSH @ COLOver 1.53.6+2.1+13.4%63.4%PrizePicksA+
Chandler SimpsonTB @ TOROver 0.52.1+1.6+13.9%63.9%PrizePicksA+
Denzer GuzmanSTL @ LAAOver 0.52.3+1.8+13.9%63.9%PrizePicksA+
Braxton FulfordWSH @ COLOver 0.52.5+2.0+13.9%63.9%PrizePicksA+

How these projections are built

01

Project each component

Hits, runs, and RBIs are projected independently from lineup context, matchup, and batted-ball profile.

02

Sum to HRR

HRR = Hits + Runs + RBIs. Because the parts are correlated, the combined distribution is modeled, not just added.

03

Grade the gap

Projected HRR minus the line becomes the edge, with over/under probability and a signal grade.

Frequently asked

What is HRR?
HRR stands for Hits + Runs + RBIs — a combo prop offered across PrizePicks, Underdog, Betr, and Sleeper.
Why decompose it?
Seeing projected hits, runs, and RBIs separately tells you whether an edge is contact-driven, lineup-driven, or power-driven — which matters for how it holds up.
Is lineup slot factored in?
Yes. Batting order drives plate appearances and RBI opportunity, both of which shift the HRR projection.