MLB · Home Run Probability
MLB Home Run Probability
Home run props are all tails, so we lead with probability, not a projection number. A projected 0.18 home runs is a chance of about 16% to go yard, useful context, but inherently high variance. We show the probability, the park, and the risk plainly.
Today’s projections
A sample of the live board. Full grades, filters, and platform comparison inside the app.
| Player | Matchup | Line | Projection | Gap | Edge | Prob | Platform | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Canzone | SEA @ COL | Over 0.5 | 0.4 | −0.2 | +8.5%Model vs price | 30.3% | Underdog | A |
| J.P. Crawford | SEA @ COL | Over 0.5 | 0.3 | −0.3 | +7.9%Model vs price | 22.6% | Underdog | A |
| Cole Young | SEA @ COL | Over 0.5 | 0.3 | −0.2 | +6.7%Model vs price | 24.1% | Underdog | A |
| Hunter Goodman | SEA @ COL | Over 0.5 | 0.4 | −0.1 | +5.0%Model vs price | 31.8% | Underdog | A |
| Shea Langeliers | ATH @ CLE | Over 0.5 | 0.3 | −0.2 | +5.0%Model vs price | 23.6% | Underdog | A |
| Zack Gelof | ATH @ CLE | Over 0.5 | 0.2 | −0.3 | +4.9%Model vs price | 20.9% | Underdog | A |
| Mark Vientos | PHI @ NYM | Over 0.5 | 0.2 | −0.3 | +2.1%Model vs price | 16.4% | Underdog | A |
| Matt Olson | ATL @ HOU | Over 0.5 | 0.3 | −0.2 | +2.9%Model vs price | 24.7% | Underdog | B |
| TJ Rumfield | SEA @ COL | Over 0.5 | 0.1 | −0.4 | +1.1%Model vs price | 13.1% | Underdog | B |
| Brooks Lee | MIN @ LAA | Over 0.5 | 0.2 | −0.3 | +1.6%Model vs price | 21.3% | Underdog | C+ |
| Sal Stewart | CHC @ CIN | Over 0.5 | 0.3 | −0.2 | +1.5%Model vs price | 25.8% | Underdog | C |
| Randy Arozarena | SEA @ COL | Over 0.5 | 0.3 | −0.2 | +1.0%Model vs price | 24.9% | Underdog | C |
How these projections are built
01
Project HR rate
Expected home runs come from the batter's power profile against the matchup and park.
02
Convert to probability
We convert the expected rate into a probability of at least one home run, the number that actually matters.
03
Flag the volatility
HR props are labeled high or extreme volatility so the risk is never hidden behind a tidy edge.
Frequently asked
- Why probability instead of a projection?
- A 0.5 HR line is a yes/no outcome. The probability of going deep is far more informative than a fractional projection.
- Are home run props worth playing?
- They carry the highest variance of any market we cover. We present them as research with explicit volatility flags, never as locks.
- What drives HR probability most?
- Batter power, how susceptible the opposing pitcher is to the home run, and park plus weather (wind direction especially).
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