Sports & models
Twelve projection engines (7 live), one accountability standard: full distributions, versioned models, graded results, and honest data-status labels. Live sports publish boards; built engines open with their seasons or data feeds.
sim-mc-2.1 · Plate-appearance simulation (~4,000 full games per slate)
Projects hitter and pitcher props from thousands of full-game simulations per slate, priced against live DFS lines and a sportsbook consensus. Live and graded nightly.
Data status
Live DFS lines plus a de-vigged sportsbook reference; every projection grades nightly against final box scores.
wnba-sim-0.2 · Possession-level simulation with per-sim minutes & availability
Projects points, rebounds, assists, and combo props from possession-level simulations built on minutes and availability. Live on real lines and graded nightly.
Data status
Live lines from four DFS books, priced on player rates measured from recent box scores; graded nightly. Injury statuses default to healthy until a licensed feed is connected, and affected projections are flagged.
nba-sim-0.3 · Possession-level simulation, 240 team minutes conserved
Projects scoring, rebounding, and playmaking props with rest days, load management, and blowout minutes built into every simulation. Ready for opening night in late October.
Data status
The engine is built and has passed two audits. Live player rates and DFS lines connect when the season opens in late October.
nfl-sim-0.2 · Drive-level, game-script-aware simulation
Projects passing, rushing, and receiving props from drive-by-drive simulations that follow the flow of the game. Ready for the September season.
Data status
The engine is built and audited. Play-by-play data and DFS lines connect with the September season.
ncaaf-sim-0.2 · Drive-level simulation on the audited NFL chassis + college mechanics
Projects college football props with the sport's own realities simulated: early starter pulls, backup snaps, and wide differences in team tempo. Ready for the late-August season.
Data status
The engine is built and audited. College data feeds and a check of DFS line coverage land with the late-August season.
ncaab-sim-0.2 · Possession-level simulation with college game structure (two halves, bonus FTs, five fouls, end-game fouling)
Projects college basketball props around the college game's own rules: five fouls, bonus free throws, and deliberate late-game fouling. Ready for the November season.
Data status
The engine is built and audited, and simulates college structure directly: five fouls, the bonus free-throw ramp, end-game fouling, two-foul benching, and transfer-heavy rosters. Live stats and lines connect with the November season, and every grade is capped at B+ until the backtest earns more.
tennis-sim-0.2 · Point-level simulation through the real scoring tree
Plays out every service game, tiebreak, and set to project aces, games won, and match length for ATP and WTA players. Live on real lines year-round.
Data status
Live DFS lines priced on serve and return rates measured from each player's recent matches, split by surface. No sportsbook posts tennis player props, so edges read model versus line, and every grade is capped at B+ until the backtest earns more.
golf-sim-0.2 · Hole-level simulation (fairway → green → outcome → putts chain)
Projects birdies, strokes, and cut chances hole by hole, with PGA cut weeks and LIV's 54-hole events treated as genuinely different formats. Built and audited; waiting on a strokes-gained data feed.
Data status
The engine is built, harness-verified, and adversarially audited, with PGA cut events and LIV 54-hole shotgun events as separate formats. DFS golf lines are confirmed available; the missing piece is a licensed strokes-gained data feed, not the calendar.
mma-sim-0.2 · Tick-level fight simulation (striking / clinch / ground states, 30-second segments)
Projects significant strikes, takedowns, and fight time from moment-by-moment fight simulations where an early finish settles the number instead of voiding it. Live on real lines for UFC cards.
Data status
Real DFS lines priced against measured fighter statistics. Full cards build on fight days, and every published prop grades against final fight statistics the morning after. No sportsbook posts these markets in usable multi-book form, so edges read model versus line, and every grade is capped at B+ until the backtest earns more.
soccer-sim-0.2 · Match-level simulation (possession environment, share-slot allocation, realized substitution windows)
Projects shots, passes, tackles, and saves with lineups and substitution timing simulated first, because minutes decide everything. Live on real lines for World Cup and club matches.
Data status
Real DFS lines priced against measured team and player inputs: posted lineups with a confirmed-or-projected status, per-player match statistics, and substitution timing from recent matches. An unposted lineup caps every grade for that match. No sportsbook posts soccer player props in usable multi-book form, so edges read model versus line, and every grade is capped at B+ until the backtest earns more.
lol-sim-0.3 · Series-of-maps simulation on a per-minute game clock
Projects kills, assists, and creep score map by map, with game length driving every number and series sweeps priced in. Live on real lines for pro league matches.
Data status
Real DFS lines priced against measured pro match data: league pace, team styles, rosters, and role shares, using only games played before each series. Projections are made before champion select, so distributions widen to carry that uncertainty. No sportsbook posts these markets, so edges read model versus line, and every grade is capped at B+ until the backtest earns more.
cs2-sim-0.3 · Series-of-maps simulation at round level (MR12 score race, overtime blocks)
Projects kills and headshots round by round, where close maps run long and lift both teams' totals. Live on real lines for pro matches.
Data status
Real DFS lines priced against measured match data: per-player kill and headshot shares, team strength, and map pools from recent finished maps. Before the map veto, projections mix the likely map pool and say so; a stand-in or unconfirmed roster caps the grade. No sportsbook posts these markets, so edges read model versus line, and every grade is capped at B+ until the backtest earns more.
Model versions, backtests, and calibration live in the Model Room. Research and analysis only — no bets are placed, no outcomes guaranteed.