MLB · Batter Hits
MLB Hits Projections
Hits props live and die on contact quality and matchup. We project expected hits from a plate-appearance model that accounts for the opposing starter, park, and lineup slot, then grade the gap to each platform's line.
Today’s projections
A sample of the live board. Full grades, filters, and platform comparison inside the app.
| Player | Matchup | Line | Projection | Gap | Edge | Prob | Platform | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams | WSH @ COL | Over 0.5 | 1.5 | +1.0 | +21.5% | 71.5% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Masataka Yoshida | BAL @ BOS | Under 1.5 | 0.8 | -0.7 | +23.8% | 87.5% | Betr | A+ |
| Colt Keith | DET @ CHC | Over 0.5 | 1.3 | +0.8 | +21.5% | 71.5% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Colt Keith | DET @ CHC | Over 0.5 | 1.3 | +0.8 | +21.5% | 71.5% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Curtis Mead | WSH @ COL | Over 0.5 | 1.4 | +0.9 | +21.5% | 71.5% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Cole Carrigg | WSH @ COL | Over 0.5 | 1.2 | +0.7 | +21.5% | 71.5% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| James Wood | WSH @ COL | Over 0.5 | 1.3 | +0.8 | +21.3% | 71.3% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF @ KC | Over 0.5 | 1.2 | +0.7 | +20.7% | 70.7% | Betr | A+ |
| Joshua Kuroda-Grauer | ATH @ AZ | Over 0.5 | 1.2 | +0.7 | +20.6% | 70.6% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Jacob Young | WSH @ COL | Over 0.5 | 1.2 | +0.7 | +20.5% | 70.5% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Elly De La Cruz | CIN @ SEA | Over 0.5 | 1.2 | +0.7 | +19.0% | 69.0% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Jake McCarthy | WSH @ COL | Over 0.5 | 1.2 | +0.7 | +18.3% | 68.3% | PrizePicks | A+ |
How these projections are built
01
Model plate appearances
Lineup slot and game total set expected plate appearances — the denominator for everything.
02
Project contact
Matchup-adjusted contact and BABIP expectations produce a projected hit total and distribution.
03
Grade the gap
Projected hits minus the line becomes the edge, with over probability and a signal grade.
Frequently asked
- Are hits props high variance?
- Moderately. A single at-bat swings the outcome, so we weight confidence and volatility heavily in the grade.
- Do you adjust for the starter?
- Yes. The opposing starter's contact-suppression profile and handedness split are central to the hits projection.
- Which side does the model prefer?
- The model recommends whichever side the projection favors relative to the line, with the probability shown explicitly.
Explore related markets