MLB · Batter Hits
MLB Hits Projections
Hits props live and die on contact quality and matchup. We project expected hits from a plate appearance model that accounts for the opposing starter, park, and lineup slot, then grade the gap to each platform's line.
Today’s projections
A sample of the live board. Full grades, filters, and platform comparison inside the app.
| Player | Matchup | Line | Projection | Gap | Edge | Prob | Platform | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richie Palacios | BOS @ TB | Over 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | +12.9%Model vs line | 62.9% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| J.P. Crawford | SEA @ COL | Under 1.5 | 1.0 | −0.5 | +15.0%Model vs price | 85.5% | Underdog | A+ |
| Nasim Nuñez | WSH @ STL | Over 0.5 | 0.9 | +0.4 | +11.4%Model vs line | 61.4% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Joe Mack | MIA @ SD | Over 0.5 | 0.9 | +0.4 | +11.3%Model vs line | 61.3% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Colt Keith | DET @ CWS | Over 0.5 | 1.1 | +0.6 | +9.7%Model vs price | 68.2% | Underdog | A+ |
| Tim Tawa | NYY @ AZ | Over 0.5 | 0.9 | +0.4 | +10.7%Model vs line | 60.7% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Jarren Duran | BOS @ TB | Over 0.5 | 0.9 | +0.4 | +10.6%Model vs line | 60.6% | PrizePicks | A |
| Brayan Rocchio | ATH @ CLE | Over 0.5 | 1.1 | +0.6 | +7.6%Model vs price | 68.2% | Underdog | A |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SEA @ COL | Over 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | +8.1%Model vs price | 65.0% | Underdog | A |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KC @ PIT | Under 1.5 | 1.0 | −0.5 | +6.6%Model vs price | 82.3% | Sleeper | B+ |
| Nathaniel Lowe | ATH @ CLE | Over 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | +6.2%Model vs price | 66.5% | Underdog | B+ |
| Osleivis Basabe | SF @ LAD | Over 0.5 | 0.8 | +0.3 | +6.1%Model vs line | 56.1% | PrizePicks | A |
How these projections are built
01
Model plate appearances
Lineup slot and game total set expected plate appearances, the denominator for everything.
02
Project contact
Contact and BABIP expectations adjusted for the matchup produce a projected hit total and distribution.
03
Grade the gap
Projected hits minus the line becomes the edge, with over probability and a signal grade.
Frequently asked
- Are hits props high variance?
- Moderately. A single at bat swings the outcome, so we weight confidence and volatility heavily in the grade.
- Do you adjust for the starter?
- Yes. The opposing starter's profile for suppressing contact and his handedness split are central to the hits projection.
- Which side does the model prefer?
- The model recommends whichever side the projection favors relative to the line, with the probability shown explicitly.
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