MLB · Total Bases
MLB Total Bases Projections
Total bases rewards power, so park and pitcher matter more here than almost anywhere. We project the full slash line, singles through home runs, and weight them into total bases, then grade the gap to each platform.
Today’s projections
A sample of the live board. Full grades, filters, and platform comparison inside the app.
| Player | Matchup | Line | Projection | Gap | Edge | Prob | Platform | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner | CHC @ CIN | Over 0.5 | 1.8 | +1.3 | +4.6%Edge vs market | 73.7% | PrizePicks | B+ |
| Jeremy Peña | ATL @ HOU | Under 1.5 | 1.4 | −0.1 | +9.1%Edge vs market | 66.3% | Underdog | C+ |
| Nasim Nuñez | WSH @ STL | Over 0.5 | 1.1 | +0.6 | +10.0%Model vs line | 60.0% | PrizePicks | A |
| Joe Mack | MIA @ SD | Over 0.5 | 1.5 | +1.0 | +10.0%Model vs line | 60.0% | PrizePicks | A |
| Taylor Walls | BOS @ TB | Over 0.5 | 1.1 | +0.6 | +6.2%Model vs line | 56.2% | PrizePicks | A |
| Dylan Beavers | MIL @ BAL | Under 0.5 | 0.8 | +0.3 | +5.1%Model vs line | 55.1% | PrizePicks | B+ |
| Brayan Rocchio | ATH @ CLE | Over 0.5 | 1.6 | +1.1 | +6.3%Model vs price | 66.6% | Underdog | B |
| Zack Gelof | ATH @ CLE | Over 0.5 | 1.7 | +1.2 | +5.0%Model vs price | 60.0% | Underdog | B |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | MIA @ SD | Under 1.5 | 1.7 | +0.2 | +5.3%Model vs line | 55.3% | PrizePicks | C |
| Chandler Simpson | BOS @ TB | Over 0.5 | 1.6 | +1.1 | +10.0%Model vs goblin payout | 73.7% | PrizePicks | A |
| Jake McCarthy | SEA @ COL | Over 0.5 | 2.4 | +1.9 | +10.0%Model vs goblin payout | 73.7% | PrizePicks | A |
| Randy Arozarena | SEA @ COL | Over 0.5 | 2.7 | +2.2 | +10.0%Model vs goblin payout | 73.7% | PrizePicks | A |
How these projections are built
01
Project the slash line
Singles, doubles, triples, and home runs are projected separately from the batted ball model.
02
Weight to total bases
Total Bases = 1B + 2·2B + 3·3B + 4·HR, with park and pitcher adjustments baked in.
03
Grade the gap
Projected total bases minus the line becomes the edge, with over probability and grade.
Frequently asked
- Why is park factor so important?
- Total bases is weighted toward power, and home run and extra base hit rates swing significantly by park and weather.
- Is this high volatility?
- It can be. One home run adds four bases. Volatility is surfaced on every projection so you can size accordingly.
- How is it different from hits?
- Hits count each safely reached base hit once, while total bases weights extra base hits, rewarding power over pure contact.
Explore related markets