MLB · Total Bases
MLB Total Bases Projections
Total bases rewards power, so park and pitcher matter more here than almost anywhere. We project the full slash line — singles through home runs — and weight them into total bases, then grade the gap to each platform.
Today’s projections
A sample of the live board. Full grades, filters, and platform comparison inside the app.
| Player | Matchup | Line | Projection | Gap | Edge | Prob | Platform | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt Keith | DET @ CHC | Over 0.5 | 2.1 | +1.6 | +17.2% | 67.2% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Joshua Kuroda-Grauer | ATH @ AZ | Over 0.5 | 1.7 | +1.2 | +16.9% | 66.9% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Chandler Simpson | TB @ TOR | Over 0.5 | 1.5 | +1.0 | +16.7% | 66.7% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Gabriel Moreno | ATH @ AZ | Over 0.5 | 1.8 | +1.3 | +16.9% | 66.9% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| CJ Abrams | WSH @ COL | Over 1.5 | 2.9 | +1.4 | +4.2% | 54.2% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | PIT @ NYY | Under 5.5 | 2.6 | -2.9 | +36.8% | 86.8% | PrizePicks | A |
| Hunter Goodman | WSH @ COL | Over 1.5 | 3.1 | +1.6 | +1.9% | 51.9% | Underdog | A+ |
| James Wood | WSH @ COL | Over 1.5 | 2.8 | +1.3 | +1.5% | 51.5% | PrizePicks | A+ |
| James Wood | WSH @ COL | Over 1.5 | 2.8 | +1.3 | +1.5% | 51.5% | Sleeper | A+ |
| Ezequiel Duran | CWS @ TEX | Under 3.5 | 1.5 | -2.0 | +35.6% | 85.6% | PrizePicks | A |
| Cole Carrigg | WSH @ COL | Over 1.5 | 2.3 | +0.8 | −3.9% | 53.9% | Underdog | A+ |
| Brandon Nimmo | CWS @ TEX | Under 3.5 | 1.9 | -1.6 | +32.2% | 82.2% | PrizePicks | A |
How these projections are built
01
Project the slash line
Singles, doubles, triples, and home runs are projected separately from the batted-ball model.
02
Weight to total bases
Total Bases = 1B + 2·2B + 3·3B + 4·HR, with park and pitcher adjustments baked in.
03
Grade the gap
Projected total bases minus the line becomes the edge, with over probability and grade.
Frequently asked
- Why is park factor so important?
- Total bases is power-weighted, and home run and extra-base-hit rates swing significantly by park and weather.
- Is this high volatility?
- It can be — one home run adds four bases. Volatility is surfaced on every projection so you can size accordingly.
- How is it different from hits?
- Hits count each safely-reached base hit once; total bases weights extra-base hits, rewarding power over pure contact.
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