Bonus conversion calculator
Compare a non returned bonus stake with a cash stake, and convert a bonus into a fixed amount with a cash hedge.
A non returned bonus stake. The stake itself is not paid back on a win.
The price on the other outcome, taken with your own money.
Bonus stake against cash stake
Conversion with a cash hedge
The two stake types are kept apart on purpose. A bonus stake is not cash and a conversion rate is not profit on money you risked. Fees, commissions, stake limits and the chance that a price moves or disappears before the second stake lands are all excluded. Promotion terms vary, so check whether your bonus stake is actually non returned before using this.
How it is calculatedOpenClose
A cash stake risks the stake, so its expected value is the win probability times the profit per unit minus the loss probability. A non returned bonus stake risks nothing of your own, so its expected value is the win probability times the profit per unit. Hedging the other side with cash fixes the outcome, and the conversion rate is the fixed amount divided by the bonus stake.
- A non returned bonus stake pays the profit only. The stake is not returned on a win, and nothing of your own money is lost on a loss.
- A cash stake is at risk, so its expected value carries the loss term that a bonus stake does not.
- Hedging the other side with cash fixes the amount kept. The conversion rate is that amount as a share of the bonus stake, not profit on money you risked.
- Promotion terms vary. Check whether the bonus stake is actually non returned before relying on this.
Worked example, illustrative
A 100 bonus stake at +200
- 1With a 33% win estimate the bonus stake is worth 66.00 in expectation, while 100 in cash at the same price is worth -1.00.
- 2Hedging the other outcome at -160 with cash needs a stake of 123.08.
- 3That fixes 76.92 whichever side lands, a conversion rate of 76.92%.
These figures are an illustration of the formula, not a claim about any real market.
Related guidance
Research only. This tool does arithmetic on numbers you type. It does not place bets, submit entries, estimate a probability for you, or tell you what to risk. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.