Expected value calculator
Enter a price and your own win, loss and push probabilities to see the expected net return per unit staked.
Your own estimate. This calculator does not supply one.
A push refunds the stake. Leave at zero on a half point line.
Expected net return
The answer is only as good as the win probability you typed. Expected value says what the arithmetic gives over many identical outcomes, not what any single one will do.
How it is calculatedOpenClose
Expected net return equals the win probability times the profit per unit, minus the loss probability. A push refunds the stake, so it contributes nothing to either term. The three probabilities must add to 1.
- The win, loss and push probabilities must add to 1. Enter the win and push figures and the loss figure is filled in.
- A push refunds the stake, so it contributes nothing to either term of the calculation.
- The win probability is yours. This calculator supplies no estimate and takes no view on whether yours is right.
Worked example, illustrative
A 51% estimate at -110
- 1Profit per unit at -110 is 0.9091, and the break-even is 52.38%.
- 2Expected net return is 0.51 times 0.9091, minus 0.49, which is -2.64% per unit staked.
- 3On a 100 stake that is a loss of 2.64 in expectation, even though 51% is above a coin flip.
These figures are an illustration of the formula, not a claim about any real market.
Related guidance
Research only. This tool does arithmetic on numbers you type. It does not place bets, submit entries, estimate a probability for you, or tell you what to risk. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.